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The EUR/USD currency pair remains stable above the 1.12 range as investors react to a recent trade agreement between the US and China, which temporarily reduces tariffs. Additionally, weaker-than-expected US inflation data raises speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Key economic indicators, including EU GDP and US retail sales, are set to be released, which may further influence market sentiment.
UBS has downgraded its outlook on U.S. stocks as easing trade tensions shift market dynamics. The decision reflects a reassessment of risks and opportunities in the current economic landscape, suggesting a more cautious approach to equity investments moving forward.
As the White House pushes for a significant tax bill amid rising federal deficits nearing 7% of GDP, global equity markets are reacting positively to reduced trade tensions between the US and China, highlighted by a 90-day tariff cut agreement. Additionally, a trade deal framework has been established between the US and the UK, signaling a shift in trade dynamics. Libby Cantrill from PIMCO discusses the implications of these developments on tariffs and market fundamentals.
Raiffeisen Bank International has partnered with Wise to enhance its cross-border payment services for retail and SME customers across 11 Central and Eastern European markets. The integration of Wise's platform will enable faster international payments, delivering transactions to over 160 countries in 20 seconds or less, while providing full transparency on fees and delivery times. The new service is set to roll out soon through the RBI mobile banking app, furthering the bank's digital transformation strategy.
UBS anticipates the effective U.S. tariff rate will stabilize around 15% by the end of 2025, down from a peak of 25% in April, as trade tensions ease. While a 10% baseline tariff remains, upcoming product-specific tariffs could push rates higher. Legal challenges to tariff implementation add uncertainty, with potential risks of renewed retaliatory measures that could impact the economy and equity markets.
Deutsche Bank remains skeptical about the sustainability of the recent S&P 500 rally, favoring European equities due to stronger earnings momentum, favorable fiscal policies, and lower valuations. Despite a short-term boost from tariff cuts, US companies face greater challenges, particularly in an election year, while Europe could benefit from potential geopolitical stability. The bank advises investors to focus on the long-term advantages of European markets over the US.
Ethereum's price has surged above $2,600, buoyed by a temporary agreement between the US and China to reduce tariffs significantly. This easing of trade tensions, alongside US inflation rising less than expected, has sparked optimism among investors, with potential resistance at $2,800 and a psychological target of $3,000. Meanwhile, the $2,400 mark is noted as a key support level.
UBS forecasts that the effective U.S. tariff rate will stabilize at around 15% by the end of 2025, down from 25% last April, reflecting improved U.S.-China trade relations. However, tariffs on strategic goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may increase again, and legal uncertainties surrounding tariff imposition could lead to significant changes. A breakdown of the current trade truce could trigger a recession in the U.S. and turmoil in global markets.
The recent agreement between China and the US to suspend most escalatory tariffs for 90 days marks a significant pause in their trade standoff, allowing for continued discussions. While the current tariff levels still pose a drag on China's GDP, the potential for increased exports and a more stable trading relationship offers cautious optimism for investors. However, volatility in Chinese equities is expected as negotiations progress.
High-net-worth investors in Asia are shifting away from dollar-based assets, diversifying into crypto, gold, and Chinese equities as global trade tensions ease. The U.S.-China tariff war highlighted the need for diversification, prompting a renewed interest in Bitcoin and commodities as safer, inflation-resistant investments. With regulatory clarity improving in key Asian markets, digital assets are increasingly viewed as essential components of a robust investment strategy.
Global Trade Developments
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trade dispute resolution boosts euro dollar stability amid economic data focus
19:02 14.05.2025
ubs downgrades us stocks as trade tensions begin to ease
18:31 14.05.2025
us china trade deal boosts global markets amid tax policy changes
16:43 14.05.2025
Raiffeisen Bank partners with Wise to enhance cross-border payment services
16:30 14.05.2025
ubs forecasts us tariff rate to stabilize at 15 percent by 2025
15:12 14.05.2025
Deutsche Bank favors European equities over US despite recent stock rally
15:04 14.05.2025
Ethereum price surges above 2600 amid tariff agreement and inflation data
15:02 14.05.2025
us tariffs expected to stabilize as trade tensions ease but risks remain
13:55 14.05.2025
China and US agree to lower tariffs amid trade negotiations
13:47 14.05.2025
high-net-worth investors shift from dollar to crypto and gold in asia
13:27 14.05.2025
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